Morality

This Economist article has a brief little overview of recent AQAP attacks.   They are clearly stepping up, but so far, and somewhat to my surprise, they have yet to overstep their bounds.   These sentences kind of get at the heart of it.

But recent hit-and-run attacks on government forces and the greater care it is taking to avoid civilian casualties suggest cannier tactics, with lessons learnt from the experience of al-Qaeda branches in Iraq and Afghanistan. Like them it is trying to weaken resolve by targeting the security forces on which the government depends.

While I agree with the second sentence, I think it also goes a little but further than that- they learned the lessons of Iraq and are avoiding the kind of mindless carnage that led to their eventual downfall.  We tend to bandy about words like "nihilism" and "psychopathic" when discussing al-Qaeda, or any other terrorist outfit.  To an extent these words work, at least in certain cases.  Zarqawi in Iraq was a bloodhungry criminal who used jihad to slake his urges.  But it is a mistake to think that all jihadis are like this.  In his excellent book, Talking to the Enemy, Scott Atran frequently uses the term "moral" to describe people who sign up for jihad, whether through Qaeda or independently.   This is a strange word, and strikes the ear as off, but it works.   There are principals, and a goal to be had, and something to fight for.  It is of course a backwards, atavistic goal, but it is there.    The more professional jihadis are moral in this sense, and that is what separates them from the merely criminal.   This is what we have in Yemen, with Nasir al-Wuhayshi.  And that is what makes him so damn dangerous. 

Think "moral" in the sense that Woody Harrelson's character uses it to describe Chighur's character in No Country for Old Men.  I can't find a video that shows it, but you all remember, right?

There is a lot more to say about this, and is something I am working on.  

In the meantime!  I'll be on the Peter Dominick show this afternoon at 5EST talking about the chance for reform in Yemen, dovetailing off the Secretary's remarks.  

Today in Links!

Yeah, it is a lazy post.  I'm finishing up an academic-style paper, which I haven't done in like 10 years.  Bear with me.

First, of course, is the blogshocking news that Waq al-Waq is leaving the safe confines of blogspot in order to go to The Big Think.  You can access it here.   Hopefully, this will get more people reading Greg, which is always a good thing.   It goes without saying that his always-amazing analysis has survived the mood.

Carnegie has video up of last week's talk about Yemen by John Brennan, assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism.   He talks about a comprehensive strategy that isn't just CT, but we'll believe that when we see more tangible evidence.   Again, I think CT is the most immediately important step, but it has to be done in tandem with other things, to alter impressions.  And also to do good, but I'm speaking from a strict policy standpoint. 


Alex in Jordan was kind enough to send out this AFP story about the Holder interview (and I like to have wire stories in unusual places).   This is my favorite line. 

"He's on the same list with Ben Laden," said US Attorney General Eric Holder, speaking on US television.

"He's up there - one, two, three, four. I don't know. He's on the list of people that worry me the most," Holder told ABC television news. 

I like Holder, and the charitable interpretation is that he is just saying what people want to hear, but in reality al-Awlaki is number 100.  But I doubt that is the case.  


Although, to be perfectly fair, the AG is far more concerned with things that are going on inside his country.  Holder is not in charge of the CIA.  Al-Awlaki has American citizenship and seems tasked with getting dummies in the US to blow shit up.  These actions fall far more under Holder's writ than CT inside Yemen.   That said, this seems to pretty much reflect the mentality of the political and media class about al-Awlaki's importance. 


Finally, here's a press release out of Darien, CT.  Darien is having a lecture series in Jan/Feb about the Arabian Peninsula, featuring heavyweights like Chris Boucek, Barbara Bodine, Isobel Coleman and David Ottaway.  Your blogger will be there on the 20th, talking about how AQAP multiplies the rest of the threats inside Yemen.    Darien is very close to NYC, so make your plans now.  Now!

Editorial

I've got a piece up in The National about Wikileaks and AQAP/Houthi violence.   I'm not sure how my predictions or reactions have played out since I wrote it a few weeks ago, but luckily I wasn't saying anything short-term.

National Editorial

I have a short-ish piece up in The National today.  Readers of the blog won't find too terribly much that is new, but there is a brief discussion at the end about the ramifications of the mid-terms.  I'd like to go into that in more detail, though, and am working on a few things that do so. 

FPRI Video

Here is video and audio (and both at the same time!) of Chris Boucek, Barak Salmoni and me at the FPRI conference last week.  I am linking to the Yemen panel (NSFW!), but you can navigate yourself around and watch the whole thing, if you have the time.  Or spread it out over a few days.  Make it a treat for yourself after a day well spent. 

Warning: I apparently say "um" about a million times more than I had thought. 

Foreign Fighters

I just spent a couple of days at the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Foreign Fighters Conference.  I was lucky enough to be on a panel with Chris Boucek and Barak Salmoni, both of whom blow me away with their knowledge and insight.   It's a real kick to get to do things like that.  The whole conference was fantastic, with excellent panels on Somalia, the Maghreb (a region that almost never gets talked about) and Af/Pak, as well as a free-wheeling and even contentious discussion of recent trends in the foreign fighter phenomenon.  The FPRI will have the whole thing on their site soon enough, and maybe we can get more into the latter discussion then (I don't want to summarize).  One of the things I got out of it was the lack of need for a comprehensive model when discussing these things, even though a model is sexy and elegant and has the veneer of summation. Everything is local and context-specific, and any unified theory will have more exception than rule.

One thing that was brought up in our Yemen panel, both by Chris and Barak (but not by your scribe) was the strange division between Yemen and Somalia.  This is something I have talked about, but not terribly well.  Those two countries are very close and have a lot of ties.  Political shorthand often obfuscates reality.  We see Yemen as a Middle East country and Somalia as an African one, but that distorts geographic facts.  Barak proposed calling the area the Northeast/Horn of Africa Continuum (or something along those lines- I didn't write it down), which would help to focus our thoughts, even if it is tougher on the tongue.   Chris elaborated on that, pointing out how  in academia, politics and especially in the military these are in separate branches, even though they have a vital relationship. 

My own contribution was about how the local context of Yemen could affect foreign fighters who are rushing there full of adventure and C4.  I think they will be a problem, but I am also pretty convinced that unless al-Wuhayshi can keep a strict control over the fighters, they will be an uncomfortable graft on the population.  AQAP has done an excellent job so far of cultivating tribal relationships, and this is a delicate balance.  I think that a glut of Pakistanis and Egyptians and even annoying Americans who got dumped and decided that was cause for jihad could potentially turn the population against them.  Who the fuck likes new converts? 

I also want to thank Jihadology's and AJG buddy Aaron Zelin, as well as reckless hobo Greg Johnsen for watching the webcast and sending in questions, though I don't think I answered either.

Book Review

I have a review of Victoria Clark's Yemen: Dancing on the Heads of Snakes in The National.    It is a worthwhile read (the book, not my review, though that isn't terrible, you know?). 

Pomona Talk

Here's the video of the talk I gave at Pomona College earlier this month.




Yemen in the 21st Century from Pomona Student Union on Vimeo.

I am the guy in the suit.

Thanks to Anna for sending me the link to this. 

A Note

I will be traveling until Wednesday, so no blogging until then.  Again, though, if you happen to be in Claremont, CA, come to Pomona Monday night to see me talk.  It will be about Yemen, unless I digress from my prepared notes and just talk about how un-freaking-believable it is that my Butler Bulldogs are in the Final Four.

Either way, it will be exciting. 

Early radio note

If anyone happens to be up and reading this on the East Coast, I am going to be on The Takeaway discussing Yemen in a few minutes, about 6 Eastern time.   That is, if I don't lapse back into sleep and start having fever-dreams on the air.

Update: Actually, it was more about Saudi Arabia, and how they arrested 110-some militants (over the last 5 months) with links to AQAP, including two suicide cells.  Caryle Murphy of The Christian Science Monitor, who was the primary guest, had some great reporting. I kept trying to hijack the conversation to Yemen.  My quick take is that this shows that Saudi Arabia is finally taking seriously the threat from Yemen.  I think until the attack on Muhammad bin-Nayif last August there was kind of a disbelief that Yemen could actually create a viable organization.  They were maybe a good place for militants to hide or recruit, but a home-grown group couldn't be a threat to the Kingdom.  I could be wrong though.  I am pretty sure I am still asleep.  

Programming Notes

I will be giving a talk about Pomona College in California (Claremont, near LA) next Monday evening.  If any readers want to come heckle you are more than welcome.  I am not sure the time and place, but I will let you know as soon as I do.

In the meantime, read this ReliefWeb article about IDPs in Yemen's north.  You'll get a sense that while Scorched Earth was a military success, it might make political reconciliation all the more difficult.

And while you are busy being unhappy, check out Paul Stephens' excellent piece on economic disparity in Yemen.  It is both gritty and learned, and continues the great work going on at The Sana'a Bureau.

Column

I won't always do this, but I am happy about this week's column, which has nothing to do with Yemen.  Click on it if you want to read it- it is about terrorism trials.  I am just excited that it provoked this comment.


O’Neill looks about as happy to be alive as Christopher Hitchens. They’re probably soulmates…

To be fair, a friend's mom did say I looked "boozy", which, in a great historical irony, I wasn't- even though the picture was taken after 5:00! 

Cheers!