Aden-Abyan Army

In his tape, Qasim al-Raymi announced the formation of an "Aden-Abyan Army" to directly fight against the government.  This will remind Yemen-watchers of the old-school Aden-Abyan Islamic Army, or the AAIA, in English shorthand.  I suppose, for a strategist like al-Raymi, there is no "I" in "Aden-Abyan Army." 

I really apologize for that, and will now get to the important part of this.

Announcing the formation of an army is a lot different than having one, of course.  But AQAP has never been much for idle threats or cheap bluster.  A question that a lot of people might have is: how is this any different than what they had?  The answer, glibly, is this: an army consists of foot-soldiers who have more talents than merely exploding. 

Here is a good quick read on this phenomenon- a post by Clint Watts over at Selected Wisdom called "Foreign Fighter Terrorism: Worry More About 'Fighters' Than 'Martyrs'".  Basically, when people move over to al-Qaeda, they are asked if they want to be fighters or martyrs- martyrs are going to do suicide-bombings, for fighters, however, "the message morphs to something more complicated: “I’ll fight the infidel, but if I survive, I’ll probably head home or to another safe haven and ultimately fight again somewhere else.” While ‘Martyr’ recruits are tactically devastating, ‘Fighter’ recruits have far greater strategic impact.  Only poor performing ‘Martyr’ recruits survive the battlefield but high performing ‘Fighter’ recruits are more likely to head back home (equipped with skills and combat experience) and become the thread for future jihadi campaigns at home or in the West."   Clint also points out that, in the Sinjar records, Yemenis were behind only Algerians in choosing fighter over martyr- a full 61% choose to do something more long-term than strapping a bomb to their chest.

With this possible new army in Yemen, you have some of the fruits of fighterdom and the roots for other battles.  Yemen will increasingly have a foreign fighter problem, and these people can be trained and dispersed.  But you also have an immediate problem.  It isn't well-known, because suicide bombings make for a more exciting newscast, and grasp our attention with an almost alien violence, but actual fighting forces have been a larger part of Qaeda's goal, particularly in Afghanistan, where in the 90s they helped the Taliban fight against the Northern Alliance.  And while it is true that it was a martyr who killed Ahamd Shah Masood, the Qaeda fighting forces kept him forever on his toes.  An army can continue to apply concerted pressure in tandem with the horrifying and random shocks of the martyrs. 

This would make sense for AQAP to do- a two-pronged attack inside Yemen while still putting their message out to the English-speaking world and hoping to inspire more lone-wolf attacks (incidentally, I am working on my thoughts on the new Inspire, and will get to them after lunch).   This continues to show that AQAP is able to take lessons from jihadi venues all over the world and integrate them into Yemen.  It would be a nice to have dumb as they are barbaric, but in Yemen we don't have that luxury.

Dead Man Talking!

Qasim al-Raymi, who was once briefly, happily, but mistakenly described as "the late Qasim al-Raymi", is once again threatening America.

"Today, you have attacked us in the middle of our household, so wait for what will befall you in the middle of yours ... We will blow up the earth from beneath your feet," Qasim al-Raymi, the wing's military commander, said in an article posted earlier this month on a website used by Islamist militants.

As Greg Johnsen has pointed out, AQAP has a long history of making threats when the feel they are ready to back them up, and are able to make reality match their rhetoric.  I have a feeling that this isn't the case here, as they have been harassed for the last month-plus.  This might be a case of wanting to stay relevant.

But that clearly should not be a call for relief- as we've noted, this is a group that is patient and stays away from reckless showmanship and empty bluster.  I don't think they are going to be able to blow up the earth from beneath our feet.  But one saw the hysteria and partisan wrangling that met the last, failed attack.  A successful one, even if limited in scope, will drive us further down a scary road.  It is wishful thinking to imagine they aren't aware of the reactions they are able to provoke.