Competition

Clint had a good little post late last week about AQIM stepping up their attacks.  He asks if AQAP and AQIM are coordinating their efforts or if they are essentially in competition with each other.  I tend to think it is the latter, and agree with Clint that it will make them even more dangerous.  Ambition mixed with need is a dangerous cocktail, and they both need top talent.  I tend to think that if there is a competition, AQAP will come out ahead, but that could be a product of my bias and the fact that no one ever pays me to talk about AQIM- and rightfully so, for that matter.  It seems like they are getting better and more organized, but if I recall correctly a few years ago there were disputes over local matters vs broader regional goals, and this led to some fracturing.  This is inevitable in any terrorist organization- or any organization, I imagine- but the multi-national nature of AQIM led to even more tension.   While AQAP is a two-state operation, they have more a surety of purpose.  This might be changing with AQIM, but due to that I would imagine AQAP has more staying power.

Of course, I also think that the attraction of talent will make the group harder to control, as ambitious and war-ready jihadis might question why there aren't more attacks and why, exactly, it is important to kill this police officer or that one, and why they aren't putting bombs in markets, etc.  If AQAP loses some control, that might help turn the population against them.  At a terrible price, of course, which is why as Greg argues we need to start a propaganda war now.